Below are the preliminary results of the 2024 races and referenda on Collier County voters’ primary election ballots. Results will not be official until August 28, when they are certified by the Canvassing Board. However, since no race was close enough to require a recount, the outcomes are not likely to change.
Following the preliminary results are some observations about voter turnout and the effects of local political influencers on the Republican primary outcomes.
Federal Races
Unofficial results of federal, multi-county, district, and judicial office races are reported on the Florida Election Watch website.
Unofficial results of local races and the referendum are reported on the state’s Preliminary Election Returns page for Collier County.
Closed primary winners Republican Rick Scott and Democrat Debbie Mucarsell Powell will face off for the U.S. Senate seat in November, also challenged by Feena Bonoan (Libertarian Party of Florida), Ben Everidge (NPA), Howard Knepper (WRI), and Tuan TQ Nguyen (NPA).
State Races
Since all of District 81 falls within Collier County, the District results and the County results are the same.
Tracey L. Redd was the winner of the 20th Circuit Group 6 seat. While Erik Leontiev received more of the Collier County votes, Collier County is just one of 5 counties in the 20th Judicial Circuit. The others are Lee, Charlotte, Glades, and Hendry.
County Races
Voter Turnout
Low in Collier County
In Collier County, 64,482 ballots were cast, just 24.9% of eligible voters, according to the preliminary returns. This is down from 28% turnout in the primary in the last general election year, 2020, and 29.7% in 2022, the most recent midterms.
In all, just 44,140 Republicans and 13,167 Democrats voted. And among those registered with No Party Affiliation and all others, 7,193 participated. (Naples Daily News)
One reason for the low turnout is undoubtedly the fact that the majority of races on Collier voters’ ballots were closed primaries in which only registered Republicans could vote. The only closed Democratic Party primary was for the U.S. Senate race. The only races open to all voters county-wide were the two school board and the two circuit judge races. And for those races, overall turnout was a full one- to two percentage points lower.
In keeping with the above, Republican voter turnout was the highest, at 31.7%. Democrat voter turnout was 25.5%. And for the rest, turnout was just 10.7%.
“I also think the negative campaigning has something to do with it,” Supervisor of Elections Melissa Blazier said to Dave Elias at NBC-2. “Some races the past month have been real gross, and I have heard from some voters that it’s a real turn-off,” she said.
The Effect of Mail Voters
Fifty-five percent of ballots cast were by mail. And when it came to the races in which all voters could vote, the people who voted by mail in Collier County decided both school board races:
Statewide Turnout
Statewide turnout was an equally disappointing 22.35%, down from 28% in 2020 and 26% in 2022, according to the Florida Division of Elections’ unofficial election night results.
Among Florida’s 67 counties, turnout ranged from a high of 58.72% in Taylor County to a low of 15.87% in Pasco County. Collier County’s turnout was the state’s 27th lowest.
Local Politics
At least two political commentators noticed that all but one of the candidates endorsed by Alfie Oakes and the Collier County Republican Party establishment were defeated in these elections. The one exception was State Committeewoman-elect Kristina Heuser.
Peter Schorsch, a former political consultant who now publishes the website FloridaPolitics.com, wrote in a piece titled Winners and Losers emerging from Florida’s 2024 Primary Elections that “After Oakes took over the Collier County REC [Republican Executive Committee], he led the organization into irrelevancy on Tuesday night…. [The] string of messes came after a rather ill-considered support of a third-place candidate for Naples Mayor…. On top of that, pretty much every local Republican — err, Reagan Club in the county these days has banded against the local REC. It may be time for this farmer to go back to his plow.”
Schorsch called U.S. Rep. Bryon Donalds a winner in these elections, despite not being on the ballot this time. His two endorsed candidates both won: Heuser and Yvette Benarroch, “who won a state House seat despite being dramatically outspent.” The Benarroch/Folley race was one of the more expensive Florida House primaries this election cycle.
“But in all honesty,” Schorsch wrote, “Donalds’ biggest winning move this cycle was likely staying above the Collier County Republican madness.”
David Silverberg, a former managing editor of the The Hill, a weekly newspaper covering Congress, also noted that Oakes’s candidates lost. Silverberg now covers news affecting the Paradise Coast of Southwest Florida that is overlooked, ignored or avoided by local traditional media in The Paradise Progressive blog.
“Collier results showed candidates endorsed by the REC and local farmer and grocer Francis Alfred “Alfie” Oakes III going down to defeat, a stunning reversal of 2022’s results,” he wrote in a piece titled MAGA candidates routed in Collier County primary election.
Next Steps
Florida’s general elections will be on November 5, just 75 days from today. In my next post, I’ll review what will be on the ballot for Collier voters.
Remember: Your party affiliation does not affect the races you can vote for in the general election. You will be able to participate in every race on the ballot (depending on your residence address), regardless of your party affiliation.