The pundits are predicting that Republicans will take 50 – 60 seats in the House, with Democrats having only a 16 percent chance of retaining the majority. But interestingly, it seems that many races have been tightening in these last days before Election Day.
The Florida Governor’s race is a toss-up. The New York Times’ FiveThirtyEight political blog shows Democrat Alex Sink beating Republican Rick Scott – but by only four-tenths of a percentage point – 48.8% to 48.4%. They give her a 53.9% chance of winning the seat.
The Florida Senate race is “leaning Republican” – but not considered “solidly Republican.”
So let’s not despair. As summed up last night by FiveThirtyEight:
… the fact that there is a seeming consensus does not necessarily indicate that it will be right. However objective or subjective a forecasting method, all are pretty much looking at the same data, and 90 percent of that data amounts to polling. This is also the time of year when everyone tends to look at everyone else’s forecasts (our model does so explicitly, in fact, since the forecasts made by experts like Cook are an input in the model), which may reduce independence. If the polling is off — and it could be off in either direction — the consensus is liable to be too.
As I wrote Thursday, it’s going to depend on what the Democrats who haven’t voted yet decide to do. It’s all about turnout.
Republicans have outnumbered Democrats in early voting by a wide margin. Here in Collier County, as reported in today’s Naples Daily News, Republican turnout has been three times that of Democrats, and four times as high in absentee ballots. The Supervisor of Elections’ office expects 30 percent of Collier voters to vote before Election Day, which means 70 percent are waiting until Tuesday.
That could be good news for Democrats and the anyone-but-Rubio voters, but we have our work cut out for us.
First – we have to convince Democrats who haven’t voted yet that their vote does matter, and can still make a difference – especially in the Governor’s and Senate races.
And second – we have to convince those Democrats that a vote for Charlie Crist is our only chance of beating Rubio in the Senate race.
I’m off to the Collier County Democratic Headquarters this afternoon to make get-out-the-vote calls. The Headquarters is at 13040 Livingston Road, Suite 6, on the southeast corner of Livingston and Pine Ridge Roads, in the Marquesa Plaza. Click here to get directions. The phone number is 239-434-7754. No appointment is necessary. Walk-ins are welcome.
If each of us does something, we can make a difference for Florida in the coming four days. Won’t you help?